The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 23 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $60,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Collingwood and Brisbane. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Gold Coast vs. Carlton
Gold Coast have played at Heritage Bank Stadium seven times this season for an average total score of 147.0. Five of their seven games at this venue in 2023 went under the total. Carlton have played eleven away games so far this season and averaged a league-low 150.6 total points on average. Over the last decade, all seven games that Gold Coast hosted Carlton went under the total. I would back under 177.5 at 1.50 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider under 167.5 at 1.89 (bet365).
GWS vs. Essendon
Essendon have won two in a row, but those wins were over West Coast and North Melbourne. Prior to that they were on a 1-5 run. GWS have gone 5-2 as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while Essendon have gone 1-6 as the away underdog. GWS have won three in a row at home against Essendon and over the last decade the Giants have gone 4-1 as the home favourite against the Bombers. I would back GWS in the head-to-head at 1.45 (Bet Right). Over the last decade, 7 of the Giants’ 8 wins over Essendon were by 1-39 margins, so those looking for more risk should consider GWS 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble).
Adelaide vs. Sydney
This is an interesting game to pick. On one hand, Adelaide have gone 5-1 as the home favourite over the last twelve months and they have gone 9-2 at home at the line over the same period. On the other hand, Sydney bring a five-game winning streak into this clash and they have won their last two away games against the Crows. Over the last decade, Sydney have gone 4-1 as the away underdog against Adelaide. I expect either Adelaide will win this by a modest margin, or Sydney will nick it by a very small margin. Adelaide have only lost one home game by 25+ over the last twelve months, while Sydney haven’t lost to Adelaide by more than 39 points over the last decade. I would wager 0.65 units on Adelaide 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble) and 0.35 units on Sydney 1-1-24 at 4.00 (Dabble).