The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 21 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $60,000 competition for the Friday night clash between the Western Bulldogs and Richmond. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Essendon vs. West Coast
This is simply a bet against West Coast, who have been abysmal away from home this season. The Eagles have lost 18 on the trot as the away side. Ten of their twelve away defeats over the last twelve months were by 40+ margins and their last five away defeats were all by 71+ margins. The Bombers defeated the Eagles by a 50-point margin earlier this season in Perth. I would back Essendon 25+ at 1.25 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Essendon 40+ at 1.53 (Dabble).
Adelaide vs. Gold Coast
The venue plays a large role in this pick. Adelaide have gone 5-1 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. Gold Coast have gone 1-7, both in the head-to-head and the line, as the away underdog over the same period. Over the last decade, the Crows have gone 7-0 at home against the Suns. Adelaide have also covered the line in each of their last five home games against the Suns. Over the last twelve months, seven of Adelaide’s eight home wins were by 25+ margins, while six of Gold Coast’s eight defeats were by 25+. I would back Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.37 (PlayUp). Those looking for more risk should consider Adelaide -18.5 at 1.90 (Bet Right, BoomBet) or Adelaide 25+ at 2.20 (BoomBet).
GWS vs. Sydney
GWS bring a seven-game winning streak into this clash and they have already beaten Sydney as the SCG this season. There is little to separate the two sides in the head-to-head market, which is noteworthy given that Sydney have gone 7-1 as the away favourite and 1-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. I expect either GWS will win, or Sydney will win by a small margin. All six of the Giants’ home defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 points. Including both home and away games, nine of their last ten defeats were by 1-24 margins. I would wager 0.67 units on GWS at 1.78 (bet365) and 0.33 units on Sydney 1-24 at 3.50 (Dabble).