The following are betting tips for Finals Week 1 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $75,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Collingwood and Melbourne. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Collingwood (1) vs. (4) Melbourne
This game features the teams with the two best records at the MCG this season. Collingwood have gone 11-3 at the ‘G this campaign (8-6 at the line) while Melbourne have gone 11-2 (8-5 at the line). Their previous meeting between in June saw Melbourne prevail 66 (8.18) to 62 (9.8). This four-point win avenged the Demons’ seven-point defeat to the Pies late last season. A competitive fixture looks likely again on Thursday given that neither side has suffered a 40+ defeat this season. Collingwood’s two home defeats this campaign were by 1-24 margins, while seven of Melbourne’s eight defeats over the last twelve months were also by 24 points or less. I would back Any Other Result in the Tribet 24.5 market at 1.73 (Bet Right). This bet wins if either side wins by 1-24 points, or if the scores are tied at the end of full-time. Of the two sides, Melbourne bring stronger form into this clash. They have won seven of the last eight, while the injury-affected Collingwood have lost three of their last five. Those looking for more risk should consider Melbourne 1-39 at 2.40 (BoomBet, Unibet) or Melbourne 1-24 at 3.35 (Unibet).
Carlton (5) vs. (8) Sydney
Both teams lost in Round 24, but prior to that they both enjoyed healthy winning streaks. Carlton had won nine in a row while Sydney had won six on the trot. My lean is towards Carlton due to the fact that Sydney have gone 2-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and they have gone 0-3 at the MCG this season. Sydney have also lost their last two away games against Carlton. I am wary, however, over the fact that Sydney have won four on the trot away from home and Carlton have only gone 3-4 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. I expect a competitive contest. Carlton haven’t lost by 40+ at home this season and Sydney have only lost by 40+ away to Carlton once over the last decade. I would back Any Other Result in the Tribet 39.5 market at 1.26 (Bet Right). Those looking for more risk should consider Carlton 1-39 at 2.05 (Bet Right, Dabble).
St Kilda (6) vs. (7) GWS
St Kilda were patchy in the second half of the season. The Saints never lost or won more than two games in a row as they went 6-6 in their final twelve games. GWS powered home in 9-2 form, however they did go 2-2 in their final four fixtures. Over the last decade, St Kilda have gone 5-1 at the line against GWS, however the Saints have only won one of four games as the home underdog against the Giants. GWS boast an impressive 7-4 away record this season, while St Kilda had a mediocre 6-5 home record. St Kilda have won each of the last four meetings against GWS. This includes a 92-80 away win over the Giants in late May. One other point of note is this game will be played at the MCG. St Kilda have only played at twice at this venue this season, while GWS have only played once. You can make a case for either side, so I will opt for Any Other Result in the Tribet 39.5 market at 1.24 (Bet Right).
Brisbane (2) vs. (3) Port Adelaide
Brisbane have gone 12-0 at home this season. They have won four on the trot at home against Port Adelaide and over the last decade the Lions have gone 5-0 as the home favourite against the Power. Port Adelaide aren’t without hope, however. They beat Brisbane 126-72 at home in March and they have gone 7-4 away from home this season. The Power are a streaky team. They have gone 15-2 in the head-to-head and 11-6 at the line on the back of a win over the last twelve months and they bring a three-gaming winning streak into this clash. In two contrasting statistics, three of Port Adelaide’s four away defeats were by 40+ this season, however six of their seven away defeats to Brisbane over the last decade were by 1-39 points. I expect either Brisbane will win or Port Adelaide will nick an upset victory. Six of the Power’s seven away wins this season were by 1-24 points. I would wager 0.75 units on Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.52 (Betfair) and 0.25 units on Port Adelaide 1-24 at 4.35 (Unibet). Those looking for more risk should simply back Brisbane in the head-to-head.